Sunday, November 28, 2010

Shape of political map not so gloomy

“Americans spoke out in a clear repudiation of Washington and elected leaders who refuse to listen to the people.”

Which Americans? Americans who voted in San Francisco hardly repudiated their congresswoman. Nancy Pelosi, departing Speaker of the House of Representatives, received 80 percent of the vote on Nov. 2.

John Boehner, incoming Speaker of the House and author of the statement above, received 66 percent of the vote from Americans who live in Cincinnati’s northern suburbs, which is about par for a congressman who has served for 20 years.

In his home state of Ohio, Boehner sure outdid Bill Johnson, a fellow Republican who eked out a victory with 50 percent of the vote. Democrat Marcia Fudge outdid all her Ohio colleagues in the House with 82 percent. Representing a suburban Cleveland district, Fudge has only been in office for two years.

It does count that Republicans now control the House and plan all kinds of mischief. However, they do not represent all Americans. They may not even represent the majority of Americans.

A check of an electoral map courtesy of The New York Times shows that districts in the heartland - what many easterners condescendingly refer to as flyover country - are heavily represented by Republicans, even before the Nov. 2 shake-up.

In America’s coastal sections, you are not in Kansas any more, John Boehner. Few districts on the West Coast or in the Northeast flipped. Especially, most districts in the big cities and their close-in suburbs remained in Democratic hands, though there were disturbing failings.

While Republicans made gains in the Senate, Democratic senators were re-elected in the first and third most populous states (California and New York) while Republicans kept a Senate seat in Florida, fourth most populous state. However, Marco Rubio benefited from a split vote between a moderate independent and a liberal Democrat.

Republicans were elected to Senate seats in Illinois and Pennsylvania, fifth and sixth most populous, but with narrow margins. Democrats also held onto Senate seats in the Northeast and West Coast states of Washington, Oregon, Connecticut, Maryland and Delaware. Not to mention hotly contested races in Colorado, Nevada and West Virginia.

Nine months after Republican Scott Brown won a traditional Democratic Senate seat, Massachusetts Democrats held onto all 10 House seats while Democrats in Connecticut kept all five House seats.

Maryland Democrats lost a congressional seat, but they will still represent six of the state’s eight districts. Delaware’s lone representative will be a Democrat who won the seat vacated by Mike Castle, a popular Republican, so he could run for the Senate. Maybe some readers heard of Christine O’Donnell, who trounced Castle in the Republican Senate primary.

The most gaping conclusion one can reach from checking the electoral map is the difference in political choice between Americans who live in and around major metropolitan areas and many of those who do not.

All told, Democrats in January will represent 22 congressional districts and Republicans seven districts in New York City and its suburbs in Connecticut, New Jersey and Long Island, and Westchester and Rockland counties in New York state. One district, which covers eastern Long Island, is undecided at this writing.

The big cities and their immediate suburbs comprise a mix of masses of poor and vulnerable citizens, the middle-class and the wealthy - the super-wealthy, for that matter.

If the rich want their taxes reduced so sharply, why do they continue to elect Democrats like Henry Waxman to represent Beverly Hills, Carolyn Maloney for Manhattan’s Upper East Side and recently Jim Himes for Greenwich and Westport in Connecticut’s Fairfield County? We’re talking about three of the wealthiest districts in the country.

In the city, a Republican narrowly won back the district covering Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, but Democrats held onto all other districts in the city. Staten Island was previously represented by Republicans for many years.

In the suburbs, Republican Nan Hayworth handily beat incumbent Democrat John Hall in the district covering portions of counties north of New York. Hayworth won all the counties in her district but northern Westchester, the principal suburban county immediately north of the city. Hayworth lives in Mt. Kisco, also home to Governor-elect Andrew Cuomo, which is in Westchester. Hall lives in the northern end of the district, in Dutchess County.

While Hayworth won part of Rockland County, the rest of Rockland and Westchester counties will continue to be represented by Democrats Nita Lowey and Eliot Engel.

However, Republicans will represent the majority of suburban voters around Philadelphia after flipping three districts in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. All three Democratic representatives from Philadelphia were re-elected.

In the Philadelphia races, Bob Brady ran unopposed while Chaka Fattah was re-elected with 89 percent of the vote. This was part of an intriguing pattern where many Democrats representing urban districts received 80 percent or more of the votes. A number of Republicans, mostly in Texas, could also claim such heavy victories.

All-time champion for winning representatives of either party was Jose E. Serrano of the south Bronx at 95 percent. In New York City alone, he was followed by Nydia Velazquez, 93 percent; Edolphus Towns, 91 percent; Yvette Clark, 90 percent; and three others at 80 percent or more. Charles Rangel, who was convicted of ethics offenses by a congressional committee, received 80 percent. Thought you wanted to know since we’re on the subject.

Most of the 80 percent or above Democrats are Latinos, African-Americans or whites who represent districts where racial minority groups comprise the majority. As a white Jewish male, I am in the minority in Bob Brady’s district. Brady, who is white, is also the city’s Democratic leader.

A final pattern: Some of the victorious Republicans won with very narrow margins, though some Democrats also eked out their wins.

It is not so significant that Democrats fared better than it might appear, but that moderate and liberal citizens want candidates who will represent their concerns.

Four independent candidates could claim such support. Lincoln Chafee, an independent and lapsed Republican, was elected governor of Rhode Island. Independent candidates for governor in Maine and senator in Florida performed well and might have won if not for the winner-take-all voting system in their states. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, while a longtime Republican, represented Alaska’s middle by beating Republican nominee Joe Miller, an ultra-conservative Tea Party candidate, through write-in votes.

Many independent voters who supported Republicans had only Democrats and Republicans to choose between. They probably recognized that, from their viewpoint, they voted for the lesser of the evils.

Fortunately, the shape of politics in America is not as evil as it might seem.

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